Oil and the economy in 2020
21-10-2012 02:46 PM
Economy faces Iraqi fundamental challenges, the first identifying energy oil production by 2020, is will 12 million barrels per day, and repeated statements of government officials which is based on contracts signed with international oil companies, or that it will not exceed six million barrels a day, according to the latest report of the Agency International Energy, which is based on sources, including interviews with senior Iraqi oil officials?
Regardless of all the possibilities for increasing Iraq’s oil production capacity to take Iraq misplaced natural in the global oil industry possession of the second largest oil reserves in the world, will cause higher oil revenues severely damaged Iraq in light of the continuing absence of transparency in the country and the continuing incidence of a culture of corruption.
The economic challenge is the second in Iraq, in the decisions of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, who sacked the central bank governor Sinan al-Shabibi, and ordered his detention without trial, and appointed another person in his place. And issued a government Spokesman Ali al-Dabbagh, issued a statement Apologetic at length in which he stated «The approval of the recommendations of the committee in charge of studying fluctuations Iraqi dinar exchange rate, brought order from the Iraqi government to address these oscillations, which came as a result of the absence of regulation process of importing currency, poor benefit from operations buy the currency, and not to tighten the Iraqi Central Bank to monitor the activity of auctions currency and sell the dollar to the private sector and cash flows out of Iraq, as well as international sanctions imposed on Syria and Iran, in particular procedures regarding Province Central Banks Syrian and Iranian, which has led to the Devaluation of their Currencies Hotels Mahlitin in the form of large.
This led the charge by the head of the executive branch to fear Economists Last attempt to interfere in the policies of the central may intervene in its affairs, and the Governor of the Central Bank is responsible to the Board of Directors of the bank and not to the prime minister.
Lies dangerous challenge oil in that information on Iraqi production capacity comes from official sources Iraqi, with the difference between what he says officially and between what is said to international agencies competent, and is this difference in the proportion of Optimism or Pessimism future performance of the sector and the potential implementation of projects agreed upon in times specific. Is it possible, for example, but not limited to, the implementation of export projects and the construction of pipelines and pumping stations (especially in the south) and the installation of pumps in a timely manner? Differs Calendar on the definition of «Iraqi production capacity, is just about all fields being developed by international companies in agreement with the Oil Ministry in Baghdad, or also includes the fields developed by national oil companies, or also includes the amount produced from the Kurdistan region of Iraq, there is debate about prospects for survival a part of Iraq under the disputes escalating with Baghdad Assuming that the Kurdistan region remained part of Iraq by the end of the decade, what are the guarantees for the survival of oil production part of the production and export of Iraqi Is Sisoq internationally by the Iraqi government («Marketing Corporation Oil – ‘Sumo’) or do will be implemented in the region was announced by the oil minister, that oil will be extracted from Iraqi Kurdistan and leads him directly to Turkey «whether Baghdad agreed or did not agree?
The second risk, and most importantly, regarding the extent of the benefit of the huge oil revenues if the rampant corruption, and wider doors and upper limbs and lower in the state, as evidenced by the statements of Representatives almost daily. Is the future of Iraq is a recipient Nigeria , producing state’s first oil on the African continent, and with too much poverty and underdevelopment despite the increase in oil production today to about 2.5 million barrels per day, because of corruption, especially in the oil sector, and according to the Minister of Finance Naguza Okonjo – Oyuela, cost about $ 40 million per day, or about $ 15 billion annually? Can build a modern and democratic countries where corruption is these levels?
The indictment Maliki Shabibi and sacked the way followed by, clearly indicate the loss of financial institutions Iraqi independence, Daham issued by the executive and not the judiciary, despite the fact that the person concerned is the central bank governor, which his mission, among other tasks, to maintain reserve the country’s financial, and determine the value of the Iraqi dinar. But clearly that the prime minister is the funds available to the Central Bank as part of the nation’s money that should be at his disposal (unchanged if the state budget), and since he Prime Minister and Commander of the armed forces and is responsible for security , he right to dispose of this money because they Iraqi, to be responsible the first and final all in the country of the parish and wealth. The corruption charges that were issued against the governor of the central bank, please that ArticlesSearch Aadhirna Prime Minister did not believe it because it is not issued by a court. A decision of this kind issued in this way is an insult to Iraq and not to the Governor of the Central Bank only, this is not the way in which modern states in dealing with central bankers
To all of this, is inevitable Pessimism fate of Billions of additional dollars are expected to get by Iraq in the coming years as a result of the expected large increase in oil revenues. Here come the fear is common at Arab public opinion: «Is oil a blessing or a curse? ».